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The Washington Blog post stated that Carnegie Endowment to have International Comfort’s Michael Kofman reviewed the Us https://happy-gambler.com/triple-dragon-fortune/ supplemental help bundle do enable it to be Ukrainian forces in order to “get time” however, you to Ukraine might also want to boost the fresh ”structural problem” regarding their restricted manpower resources. A good Russian Violent storm-Z instructor detailed you to Russian bodies must consider the contradictory passions of one’s Russian army command, various groups of armed forces group inside Ukraine, and you can Russian neighborhood whenever choosing whether or not to conduct another revolution of mobilization or perhaps not. The fresh instructor stated you to Russian authorities have resorted in order to recruiting volunteer army staff because they are concerned one to another mobilization revolution create likely ignite public stress within the Russia and you will cause another size exodus in the nation.
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Russia’s current gains around Bakhmut used weeks away from people trend attacks so you can secure territorial development to Bakhmut from the brute force during the astounding people can cost you. Russia’s before take from Severodonetsk and you will Lysychansk during the summer 2022 and did not utilize shared fingers but alternatively used highest-level going artillery barrages to methodically destroy Ukrainian ranks. Russian forces are receiving increasing weaponry ammo shortages who does prevent her or him from continual such programs.10 It is unrealistic, moreover, the traditional Russian armed forces would be prepared to use the categories of horrific losses the human being revolution strategy provides inflicted to your Wagner’s convicts. Putin may have booked the brand new address to your federal set up within the the fresh expectation you to Russian forces create safer at least an excellent tactical victory on the Bakhmut city, even though Russian pushes only have attained on the five-hundred square kilometers inside the new Bakhmut town inside intense campaigning as the July cuatro, 2022, if you are distress extravagant casualties. Putin you are going to declare the beginning of a following mobilization trend, even when extremely symptoms and you may examination advise that he will not perform thus now.11 ISW, and Uk Shelter Minister Ben Wallace, assesses that Russian military has recently the amount of time a significant number of their readily available structures so you can intensified offending surgery inside the Ukraine and you may your lack of higher uncommitted supplies may end Putin out of proclaiming the beginning of an entirely the new high-scale unpleasant effort.12 Putin may continue to deliver insignificant societal addresses since the absence of Russian armed forces achievements within the Ukraine deprives him of your own possible opportunity to claim or convincingly vow a victory of every significance.
The newest Wagner-connected Kiber Side Z path has been spearheading discussions concerning the conflict inside Prigozhin-had pubs for months, and it is you’ll be able to so it large-profile murder often dissuade folks from going to comparable incidents. ISW didn’t is occurrences where secondary flames might have inadvertently murdered religious frontrunners otherwise lost churches.3 (It report particularly doesn’t come with the 494 spiritual houses you to the brand new Russian armed forces reportedly entirely lost, busted, or looted, with respect to the separate Kyiv-based Institute for Spiritual Versatility as of February 2023 since the ISW don’t evaluate intentionality throughout the individuals cases, including.)4 The new events among them analysis try removed out of account out of Russian pushes – always infantry, shelter staff, otherwise profession authorities – on purpose coercing religious organizations. It statement as well as excludes of numerous cases of Russian religious repressions inside the section Russian pushes have occupied away from spring season 2014 to March 24, 2022, to a target new persecutions inside recently-occupied portion. While the Russia’s full-scale invasion away from Ukraine inside the March 2022 Russian troops or job bodies provides reportedly the amount of time at least 76 acts away from religious persecution within the Ukraine.1 Russian authorities features finalized, nationalized, or forcefully translated no less than twenty-six places of worship to the Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church of your Moscow Patriarchate, murdered otherwise captured no less than 29 clergy or spiritual leaders, and looted, desecrated, or on purpose destroyed no less than 13 church buildings inside filled Ukraine.2 These types of cases of spiritual repression are not probably separated events however, instead element of a planned venture so you can methodically remove “undesirable” spiritual communities inside the Ukraine and you may give the new Moscow Patriarchate. Wagner Class financier Yevgeny Prigozhin try reportedly continue his political aspirations from the trying to get control over an excellent Russian governmental party.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a presentation on the June twenty six seeking to in order to encourage as much Wagner competitors and you will leaders that you can in order to join the Russian military and you may continue fighting against Ukraine and trigger people most dedicated to help you Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin to self-select. Putin continued to help you denounce the newest organizers of one’s armed rebellion as the traitors.1 Putin thanked Russian area and the Russian shelter pushes for shielding Russia’s sovereignty and you may conveyed appreciation to help you Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for brokering transactions to your perpetrators of one’s rebellion. Putin are rhetorically separating Prigozhin regarding the Wagner PMC which is purposely starving Prigozhin of your label from Wagner financier to weaken their character in the Wagner PMC. The brand new Kremlin introduced a continuing home-based information campaign inside the Russia to help you forgive Wagner competitors and you will commanders in an effort to lure Wagner team to sign contacts for the Russian Ministry from Protection (MoD).step 3 The new deliberate energy to split up Prigozhin regarding the Wagner Classification is probably intended to lay educational criteria so the Kremlin can be accuse Prigozhin from corruption or conspiring that have Ukraine and/or Western and you may alienate Prigozhin of Wagner team who the brand new Kremlin tries to hold to fight in the Ukraine within the normal Russian army.4 Prigozhin had founded his own brand to the criticizing the newest Russian army order and you can bureaucrats to possess corruption and you can connections in order to West nations, and Putin is probably wanting to shatter Prigozhin’s populist focus by the accusing your of the same sins. Continued reporting about the package mediated by the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko to get rid of the fresh Wagner Class’s armed rebellion implies that involved functions may still getting settling the new details of the new agreement. Independent Belarusian overseeing group The brand new Hajun Enterprise cited journey tracking analysis for the Summer 27 suggesting you to Wagner Classification financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s jet took off from the Machulishchy airfield inside the Belarus to the Russia, travelled to help you Moscow, and then instantly became popular to own St. Petersburg.1 Former Russian administrator and you may preferred crucial milblogger Igor Girkin advertised one Prigozhin gone back to Russia so you can negotiate which have unspecified Russian authorities and you will the fresh Wagner Frontrunner’s Council.2 ISW do not separately show in the event the Prigozhin performed actually go back to Russia, nor the main points of the purported see, but Prigozhin could have returned temporarily to sort out subsequent info of your own deal negotiated from the Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko.
The fresh invocation out of a great ceasefire on the extremely religious grounds in line with Eastern Orthodox Christian culture is actually a subcomponent of this advice procedure. Is to Russia provide and you can Ukraine reject an excellent ceasefire more than Orthodox Easter the fresh Kremlin will not and thus have displayed one deeper commitment to help you the fresh defense away from Christianity or Christian thinking nor shown one to Kyiv denies the individuals values. Specific Russian players from the information area have likewise misunderstood Prigozhin’s article, next launching fissures ranging from certain Russian milbloggers. Pro-Kremlin information aggregator Readovka listed on April 15 you to specific unspecified Russian-words Telegram streams – such particular West mass media – simply frequent Prigozhin’s strawman argument concerning the seduction of settling for negotiations instead “studying any more” to your Prigozhin’s require a long fight.4 Readovka recommended Prigozhin’s real argument the “shameful facts” is the fact Russia need to continue to fight, concurring you to definitely dealings to finish the war manage “manage more damage than just an excellent.”5 Former Russian administrator and you may ardent nationalist Igor Girkin – an enemy from Prigozhin – leaned for the misinterpretation of Prigozhin’s essay (possibly deliberately) as an element of its lingering posting blogs feud. Girkin sarcastically expected, “Do I know truthfully that the Black Clown Prigozhin needed the fresh Russian Federation to refuse half the newest Donetsk People’s Republic and you will a third from Zaporizhia Oblast…?
The brand new Russian Ministry out of Protection (MoD) posted video footage to your March 26 saying to display Gerasimov visiting a 58th CAA order post inside Ukraine, hearing account in regards to the functional condition, and you may to provide medals so you can Russian servicemen.12 The brand new 58th CAA is currently looking for offending functions in the west Zaporizhia Oblast, so that the MoD movies implies that Gerasimov decided to go to a demand blog post somewhere in the fresh Zaporizhia Oblast assistance. The new Russian MoD wrote video footage appearing Gerasimov awarding Russian soldiers just after the new get from Avdiivka to the February 21, that is significantly the first personal portrayal of Gerasimov offering their command requirements because the December 31.13 Gerasimov fired previous 58th CAA Chief Major-general Ivan Popov inside the July 2023 pursuing the records you to definitely Popov bypassed Gerasimov’s command and myself appealed to your Kremlin in order to grumble on the Gerasimov’s refusal in order to become 58th CAA soldiers from the frontline to possess others and reconstitution because they have been defending up against Ukraine’s june 2023 counteroffensive force inside Zaporizhia Oblast.14 Gerasimov probably decided to go to the new 58th CAA demand blog post partly so you can rebuild his reference to 58th CAA lower-peak commanders and servicemembers following the Popov’s shooting plus the complaint they produced from Gerasimov.15 Gerasimov along with seems to be involved with a strategy presenting himself since the a good and curious captain of the General Personnel, and his awesome previous public appearance to the regions of the front in which Russian pushes are making tactical gains are most likely section of that it work to bolster their personal picture. Russian Chairman Vladimir Putin made use of their March 30 address to your Government Set up to try to persuade the brand new Russian societal one to his second identity because the president will be outlined by Russian military achievements inside the Ukraine although not at the expense of stagnating otherwise decreased personal and you will financial passions. Putin stated that Russian treat capabilities have raised “repeatedly more” which Russian forces “solidly support the effort, with confidence progress in certain operational parts” and you may take “more territory.”11 Putin’s characterization away from Russian offending procedures inside Ukraine try notably more pretty sure than their December 14, 2023, Lead Line statement you to Russian forces have been in the “the brand new energetic stage away from step.”12 Putin’s willingness so you can in public places show their noticeable confidence inside the Russian offending operations probably comes from Russia’s previous seizure out of Avdiivka and you will extended You debates in the armed forces support to help you Ukraine.
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- Lavrov’s reviews recommend that the newest Kremlin will likely use the tip of a consistently moving forward demilitarized “hygienic area” to help you justify Russian offensive surgery subsequent and extra to your Ukraine.
- Russia can also be reportedly make around 42 Iskander missiles and you may five Kinzhal missiles monthly, although it is actually unsure exactly how many S-300/S-400 missiles Russia can create.13 Russia‘s defense industrial feet (DIB) most likely don’t generate ballistic missiles from the measure required for a good persistent struck strategy in the Ukraine you to definitely utilizes regularly spending a great higher level of ballistic missiles, and Russia almost certainly has to resource ballistic missiles from overseas when the they wants to care for higher-measure missile affects against Ukraine.
- The fresh Russian Condition Duma will also believe amendments to your Russian legislation for the veterans’ rights to provide seasoned reputation in order to individual armed forces organizations (PMCs) and volunteers.4 Prigozhin had been routinely advocating to have Wagner staff as accepted while the professionals of your own ”unique armed forces process” inside the Ukraine, and also the adoption of the expenses manage signify you to definitely Prigozhin’s reputation from the Kremlin inner community features enhanced.
- ISW reviewed on may 17 one Russian strongmen (siloviki) are making an effort to discredit Prigozhin because of the accusing him out of attempting to fool around with earn in the Bakhmut to advance their governmental dreams within the Russia.22 Morozov’s complaint try celebrated as it might imply a change inside the ultranationalists’ impact from Prigozhin.
- Russian milbloggers claimed one to Ukrainian forces launched anywhere between a dozen and you may 15 ATACMS missiles focusing on Simferopol as well as the Dzhankoi airfield however, advertised you to definitely Russian air defenses downed all of the missiles.12 The newest Russian Ministry away from Defense (MoD) said you to Russian sky protections destroyed six ATACMS missiles inside a keen unspecified city, most likely dealing with occupied Crimea.13 Russia opposition socket Astra reported that Ukrainian missiles, allegedly ATACMS missiles, struck business of one’s Russian 31st Heavens Security Division in the Chornomorsk and you can Saky raions plus the Dzhankoi airfield, causing a flame and you will wounding numerous Russian servicemen.14 Ukrainian officials haven’t taken care of immediately the fresh advertised strike, and you will ISW never individually make certain Russian claims concerning the struck.
- Akhmat pushes have deployed throughout the Ukraine, mostly regarding the Bilohorivka area inside Luhansk Oblast as well as in thrown portion in the south, during the period of 2023 but have not been majorly enough time to definitive unpleasant surgery.6 The new Chechen forces who does deploy to Bakhmut are therefore likely significantly fresher much less degraded than simply Wagner pushes which have remained on the front side to have weeks.
Republic of Tatarstan Direct Rustam Minnikhanov warned you to definitely Russian enterprises and you can local government need to safeguard on their own facing Ukrainian drone strikes and never believe in Russian air protections following April dos Ukrainian impacts for the Russian armed forces creation and you can oils refinery structure within the Tatarstan. Minnikhanov mentioned on the April step 3 one to “you don’t have to attend to have Russian missile defense so you can work…we have to choose our own, all the firm, all municipality, all town.”20 Minnikhanov stated that Russians is always to “wake up” and you will realize that “no-one often manage your except oneself.” Russian army supply has just informed Russian state retailer Izvestia that Russian army is building cellular flame groups to combat Ukrainian drones, showing you to definitely Russia could be not able to deploy old-fashioned heavens protection possibilities to defend every one of Russia’s crucial establishment.21 ISW reviewed one to Ukraine’s April dos strikes to your goals in the Tatarstan likely show a great significant inflection in the Ukraine’s power to carry out much time-range strikes far on the butt Russia’s section.22 Minnikhanov’s statement is probably a representation of increased Russian concern following the the new April 2 impacts which can be a definite receipt and you may admonition of your Russian Ministry out of Defense’s (MoD) inability to defend Russian cities and vital system out of Ukrainian drone affects. Russian threats to help you Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka are operationally high as the this type of “fortress” towns help mode the newest central source of your Ukrainian defense inside the Donetsk Oblast as well as east Ukraine generally. The newest isolation out of Kostyantynivka or the downright seizure of the payment would probably rather need replacing Ukraine’s capacity to contain the frontline subsequent south inside Donetsk Oblast because perform sever a primary soil type of correspondence collectively the fresh H-20 (Kostyantynivka-Donetsk Area) highway and want Ukrainian pushes to help you to go a serious portion of manpower and you may materiel for the defense of your remaining “fortress” belt and you can apparently smaller fortified regions of central and you will western Donetsk Oblast. Russian enhances as a result of Kostyantynivka and you can Druzhkivka after which next west to the Donetsk Oblast would expose Russian pushes with better opportunities to collapse the newest Ukrainian frontline in the Donetsk Oblast and possibly fix apparently fast control to your battleground in pursuit of seizing all of Donetsk Oblast.
Russian Investigative Committee Direct Alexander Bastrykin advertised you to Russia doesn’t have monetary need to transfer foreign labor, a direct paradox out of Russian Chairman Vladimir Putin’s previous efforts in order to validate Russia’s current migration laws and regulations so you can his xenophobic ultra-nationalist constituency. Bastrykin said through the a speech at the St. Petersburg Global Judge Discussion board for the April ten you to Russia does not have any monetary cause so you can import migrant professionals, for example experts out of Main Asian countries.38 Bastrykin reported that a keen Uzbek bodies authoritative once requested Bastrykin as to the reasons Russia consumes too many migrants and you will lets migrants to make use of to own Russian citizenship, such younger migrants whom Bastrykin insinuated have been unsafe. Bastrykin stated that there’s “absolutely no way” Russia can be overcome the fresh claimed pattern away from enhanced migrant offense inside the Russia and you may stated you to migrants inside Russia is actually reluctant to absorb to the Russian people and community. The brand new chance of a good Russian unpleasant process targeting Kharkiv or Sumy urban area seems to be pushing the newest Ukrainian army so you can redistribute their restricted manpower and you can materiel to the framework away from defensive fortifications within the those individuals components and an energetic Russian operation to seize these types of urban centers manage just next worsen so it vibrant.
Just click here to read through in regards to the strategy at the rear of ISW and you can CTP’s mapping away from it argument.
The new Russian MoD granted a second inform in regards to the June step one Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast edging raid, mostly fixating to the timeliness and scope of one’s Russian response on the raid.step one The new MoD said you to definitely more Russian Western Armed forces Region (WMD) aspects bolstered the newest border city inside an hour of one’s initiate of your own raid and you will held big sky, artillery, and flamethrower affects up against the raiding systems and their reserves. The newest MoD advertised that over 135 anyone and you will thirty-five auto in the total conducted the brand new raids and this certain Russian protective work – in addition to brief hands fire and you will mines – repelled the new raids. The brand new MoD after celebrated the fresh commander out of an unspecified motorized rifle battalion, Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Nikitin, to own best the new protective effort, gonna preempt tries to feature the fresh “victory” accomplished by Belgorod edging shelter to the Russian Colonel General Alexander Lapin as the information space performed inside the Could possibly get 23 raid.2 The fresh Russian MoD’s obsession on the depicting Russian pushes plus the Russian armed forces command while the able to defenders away from Russia probably reflects internal and you can wide guidance space anxiety along the future Ukrainian counteroffensive and one reverberating informational has an effect on of people problems to guard facing Ukrainian counterattacks. Ukrainian officials have not publicly claimed one sudden accumulation from Russian forces in the Kupyansk assistance demonstrating one to a big-scale offensive to succeed to your Oskil Lake try impending. A great Russian milblogger argued you to Russian forces have to raise thought and you can control at the tactical and you may operational profile to ensure that Russian offensive functions can be break out of your most recent positional warfare inside the Ukraine.10 The brand new milblogger stated that Russian forces cannot concentrate the newest fighting formations – especially mechanical systems – regarding the meant tips from assault as a result of the danger of Ukrainian influences against high force accumulations. The fresh milblogger stated that Russian pushes must precede people development having preparatory weapons flames facing the goal one to Russian pushes are attacking and you will Ukrainian weaponry firing ranks within the a wide area inside listing of objective.
An enthusiastic unnamed elder Us regulators formal advised the brand new NYT you to definitely Russia is likely unfreezing Northern Korean assets and helping North Korea avoid worldwide sanctions in exchange for North Korean weapons transfers to help you Russia. Russian Chairman Vladimir Putin met with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un within the Russia within the Sep 2023 and you may confronted by Northern Korean Overseas Minister Choe Kid-hui within the January 2024.21 Ukrainian Main Armed forces Cleverness Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major-general Vadym Skibitskyi reported that North Korea introduced one million rounds of artillery ammo in order to Russia from September so you can November 2023, and you may Us authorities provides stated that Russian forces features revealed at the minimum nine North Korean ballistic missiles facing Ukraine.22 ISW will continue to assess you to Russia is generally accessible to financial, scientific, and you may security collaboration with North Korea in return for the new supply of weaponry ammunition and ballistic missiles to utilize in the Ukraine.23 North Korea would make the most of which cooperation by get together technology investigation from the guns’ performance inside the Ukraine to make use of within the North Korean search and you may innovation among other things. Russian authorities may be creating sufficient the brand new forces in order to sustain loss produced by the present day tempo of the offending operations within the Ukraine thanks to 2025. Russian source claimed your Russian armed forces commercially eliminated Russian Black colored Water Collection (BSF) Frontrunner Admiral Viktor Sokolov and you may replaced him to the BSF’s Chief out of Personnel Vice Admiral Sergei Pinchuk.38 A good Ukrainian struck for the Russian BSF headquarters inside occupied Sevastopol, Crimea in the September 2023 probably murdered Sokolov.39 A Russian milblogger stated one to Sokolov, who have been BSF commander because the September 2022, blocked the new BSF of setting up low-standard products for the boats to have detecting coastal drones or any other technologically complex devices and you will stated your BSF destroyed from the 20 precent of the power less than Sokolov’s order.40 Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Chief 3rd Score Dmytro Pletenchuk stated that the new BSF had almost 80 bits of naval treat gizmos at the beginning of the Russia’s complete-level invasion inside the February 2022 of which 29 so you can thirty-five were “greatly armed.”41 Pletenchuk reported that Ukrainian pushes has “destroyed” twenty-six naval handle parts as of March 15, 2023, and “certainly broken” some other 15. Pletenchuk along with stated that the fresh Russian coast guard (under to the Russian Federal Shelter Provider FSB) provides around 20 individuals ships.
Russian pushes you’ll seek to fool around with Lyman as the a good starting part for a definitive offending to help you safer Donbas by carrying out an offending out of Lyman in tandem that have a force to your Bakhmut otherwise away from Bakhmut on the Slovyansk should your Russians succeed in capturing Bakhmut. The brand new Russians get that is amazing they are able to push using their current ranks straight to the fresh Donetsk Oblast border collectively multiple independent lines of improve, though it is unrealistic which they wouldn’t accept the ultimate improbability from achievement this kind of a go. The brand new Russians probably be intend to realize several stages of unpleasant functions culminating having protecting the fresh limits of Donetsk and you will Luhansk oblasts. These stages would likely wanted anywhere from half dozen to one year out of Russian campaigning, if they’re it is possible to after all, extrapolating out of prior Russian working models and you may just in case high degrees of Russian combat energy and you can capability than ISW has seen because the start of conflict. The fresh Russian nationalist guidance place is actually carried on to talk about care more Russia’s inability to help you sustain an abrupt and you may multi-pronged definitive offensive operation for the a deadline. You to well-known milblogger warned one Russian forces cannot fall under the new pitfall from attempting to begin multiple offensive surgery such as they did in the spring 2022 but instead work on steady advances you to do make highest casualties among Ukrainian forces.
- The thought of Russia’s “historic frontiers” can be used to justify hostility facing any out of Russia’s locals, along with Moldova as well as the Central Far eastern says that do not express an edge which have Russia, because the all of them incorporate territory you to definitely belonged at the one-point to help you sometimes the new Soviet Partnership and/or Russian Kingdom or each other.
- In case your Gagauzian government could possibly in some way enact the new contract, however, the newest Kremlin might use the new money to help you financially bring a section from Gagauzia to do the brand new Kremlin’s putting in a bid, or you will cut off the newest payments during the the next time of Moscow’s choosing to foment an urgent situation.
- Putin’s mentioned aim of pushing leading range to ensure Russia’s advertised and you may genuine territories is outside Ukrainian firing range is a vague goal that’s actually hard provided there’s a different Ukraine with people capacity to fight.
- Lavrov’s equations of one’s West having Nazi Germany as well as help to have Ukraine having an effort so you can exterminate the brand new Russian folks are ludicrous and you can likely intended for a residential Russian listeners.
Zvinchuk offered an interview to Russian-words diaspora-focused retailer RTVi may 18 one to focused on the newest substitute for of previous Russian Shelter Minister and you will latest Russian Defense Council Assistant Sergei Shoigu and you will corruption in the Russian MoD.43 Zvinchuk reported concerning the Russian MoD’s bureaucratic items and you will advertised one to recently designated Russian Protection Minister Andrei Belousov should initiate to make “positive changes” for the MoD within this 3 months just before people “initiate asking inquiries.” Zvinchuk advertised you to definitely Belousov might exchange previous Russian Deputy Shelter Minister Ruslan Tsalikov, which reportedly recorded their resignation so you can Shoigu each week prior to Shoigu’s replacement, since the Tsalikov try Shoigu’s “right hand man,” not Belousov’s. Zvinchuk and advertised one to Russian Deputy Defense Minister Tatyana Shevtsova and Russian Deputy Protection Minister and you can Direct of your Russian MoD’s Fundamental Military-Political Directorate Viktor Goremykin will remain within their ranks. A good Russian insider supply, who’s in past times precisely claimed to your Russian military demand transform, said may 14 you to definitely Shevtsova will likely resign, but not.44 Zvinchuk said which he have suggestions one to Russian Deputy Protection Minister Colonel Standard Yunus-Bek Yevkurov leaves their article to help you head the newest Russian MoD’s Africa Corps and therefore Direct of your Russian MoD’s Head Directorate away from Armed forces Police Standard Sergei Kuralenko often change Yevkurov.
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